„Welcome to our CASPI Industry Insight, giving you a birds-eye market view especially from an M&A perspective. The global market is expected to grow sustainably with Coatings and Specialty Polymers primarily fueling the growth. 2021 will see a great number of transactions coming to a closing. SMEs with regional and niche positioning are expected to engage more strongly in M&A activity. Additionally, EV/SALES shows a 5-year peak because of the pandemic-related shutdowns. On the other hand, EV/EBITDA remains flat.“
Global Market Development per Segment
in USD b 2021-2027
Global Market Share
in USD by Sector 2021
- The CASPI market includes Coatings & Paints, Adhesives & Sealants, Specialty Polymers and Inks.
- The market size in 2021 approximates up to USD 460 b, depending on the various subsegments reflected in the analysis. A CAGR of >5% is expected in the years to come, energized by the increase in demand for Coatings & Paints, and Specialty Polymers.
- The market shares reflect the mentioned demand increases. Therefore, Specialty Polymers and Coatings & Paints make up >80% of the global CASPI market.
Sources: Globesnewswire (2021), Wboc (2021), Industry Arc (2021), Expertmarketresearch (2020), Imarcgroup (2021)
Market Segments & Details | Coatings & Paints
Global Coatings & Paints Industry
2019 per sector of application
Coatings & Paints VS. Petro Chemicals
M&A Activity 2020
Estimated Consolidation Trend &
- Within the Coatings & Paints sector, decorative coatings govern most of the market. Additionally, decorative coatings are expected to reflect the largest growth rates of >6.5%, as a result of the growth in the construction industry. In comparison, industrial applications, such as the automotive sector, havedecreased sharply because of lower overall demand.
- Coatings & Paints is expected to grow in M&A activity when considering past analyses. The market research indicates an increase in the consolidation of Coatings & Paints because of declining profitability and liquidity.
- Petro Chemicals, used to produce Polymers, show a similar trend in consolidation but with a lower takeover probability. It is expected that the profitability in the Polymer industry was thus less impacted by the pandemic-related shutdowns.
Note: *1) takeover probability is a product of High price volatility, low valuation, low profitability, high leverage, and firm size
*2) The peer group consists of operators with revenues exceeding USD 100m
Sources: Coatingsgroup (2020), Coatingsworld (2020), pcimag (2020), EY Parthenon (2020), Chemquest (2020), nap.edu (1994), Farbe und Lacke (2021)
COVID-19 caused wider consolidation and opportunity for M&A activity in the CASPI sector. Moreover, challenges from associated industries, such as construction and automotive, are widely reflected in the development of the CASPI market. Therefore, we expect an increase in the gap among SMEs that operate in different sub-industries. This leaves an opportunity for a stronger consolidation trend in the market. The pandemic also impacted the purchasing behavior of consumers, pivoting businesses to a faster adaptation of innovation and digitalization in commerce.
The CASPI market shows an increase in costs among its subsegments. Especially, among Inks and Coatings price increases of about 7-10%, depending on product line and application can be expected. Price increases in raw materials are also argued to impact consolidation in the sector, resulting in some SMEs not being able to keep their margins and thus be acquired by larger corporations.
Bio-based coating systems are a strongly growing niche segment with currently around 5% market share. Nevertheless, analysts expect that for a wider implementation, larger investments in R&D will be needed. Similar trends can be expected among Adhesives & Sealants because of pushes towards sustainability by multinationals such as Amazon or Walmart.
2021 will see a great number of transactions coming to a closing. Divesting companies will increasingly focus on their core business, positively reflecting in their valuations. Strategists that currently engage in acquisitions may see a great opportunity to sell the acquired entities profitably to conglomerates in the years to come. Additionally, SMEs with special technologies or strong product positioning in regional and niche markets may be seen in future M&A activity. Furthermore, it is expected that Asian companies may increasingly be tempted to enter the European market in the months to come.
Sources: EY Parthenon (2020), European coatings (2021, 2021), Farbe und Lacke (2021)
Valuation Trends and Developments
EV/EBITDA(Next 12 Months)
- The peer group consisted of more than 30 stock-listed multinationals in the various CASPI sectors. For Small and Mid-sized businesses 20-30% markdowns in multiples may be expected.
- EV/Sales was visibly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns, causing sharp decreases in the Top-line against a relatively stable cash flow. Therefore, current EV/SALES results in a 5-year peak.
- EV/EBITDA displays a similar pattern showing fewer fluctuations in the companies‘ cash flow. This may be due because of price increases in both final products and raw materials, resulting in a relatively flat margin development.
Sources: Sazun Equity Research, CASPI (2021)
Key Performance Indicators
Selected Latest Deals (YTD)
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Your SAZUN Team