„After a rough 2022 in the CASPI sectors, there is still no clear path forward in the short-term. However, a push from EMEA industry players towards greening the sector and innovating product lines has been increasing the interests in the region.“
Global Market Development per Segment
in USD bn 2022-2028
Market Shares – Coatings & Paints
Worldwide based on revenue in 2021
The global market in the CASPI (Coating & Paints, Adhesives & Sealants, Specialty Polymers and Inks) sector follows a growth trend of 5.4% CAGR. Demand in the short-term, however, will be challenging for managers to assess.
The Coatings & Paints market is very much consolidated with the top 10 players amassing ≈ 52% of the total market share – due to the M&A activity in the sector, we expect consolidation in still fragmented segments to continue given current valuation levels.
Sources: Globesnewswire, Fortunebusinessinsight, Industry Arc, Statista
- Deal flow in the CASPI sector fluctuated strongly in the past 10 years
- The analyzed deals report a median EV of EUR 182m
- For smaller EV additional liquidity markdowns are to be taken into account
- Among the recorded deals we see that a great share of international large players drive the global consolidation wave
Note: Deal flow and valuations focused on the CASPI sector worldwide – only deals that recorded EBITDA Multiples are included / Source: Merger Market
Trends & Developments
At the end of 2022 there were no further production cuts and inventory levels are still reasonably high throughout the industry. However, volume is expected to decrease in 2023 while sales value will most likely be up. Furthermore, a reevaluation of supply chain structures to optimize business operations and gaining a resilience against future disruptions will be of high importance in 2023.
After construction and industrial activity declined in the past year, it has been slightly up in recent months, but is still below 2021 levels. While the recent pick-up in activity levels is positive, uncertainty prevails about the short to medium term future as the industry gets used to the new normal dominated by high interest rates and persistent inflation.
Many leading players are focusing their efforts on increasing the usage of renewable electricity sources and moving towards being classified as “zero-waste” companies. As interesting case study, AkzoNobel is leading the way with their commitment to implementing 100% renewable energy sources in their production process by 2030.
The M&A activity in the CASPI sector has recovered from its pandemic low, leading to further consolidation by international players within important chemical markets, such as Italy and Germany.
Sources: FarbeundLack , Merger Market, European Coatings, American Coatings Association, Coatingsworld
Valuation Trends and Developments
EV/EBITDA(Next 12 Months)
As economic expectations weakened and uncertainty about developments in the short-term prevail, NTM multiples have been just below the 2-year median for the past year and are expected to stay on that level for the upcoming months.
EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA display a spike in expected valuations at the beginning of Q1 2023. However, this optimism disappeared in the past few months.
Source: Sazun Equity Research
Key Performance Indicators
Note: The peer group consists of more than 30 stock-listed companies/Source: Sazun Equity Research
Selected Latest Deals (Last 6 Months)
Sources: Mergermarket, Sazun Equity Research
Want to know more?
If you would like to learn more about the valuations and deals of your industry, the transaction mentioned above, or generally our way of working, we would certainly be happy to demonstrate our m&a PLUS® principle in a confidential meeting. Of course, we also offer detailed overviews of the vending machines business, bakeries, and travel platforms, where we have strong credentials.
Just get in touch and we will share our experience on how to grow businesses with long-lasting partnerships.
With passion for M&A,
Your SAZUN Team